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需反思不得不行政干预股市的原因

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年07月23日 17:16:53
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(  ◎苏)(培)(科)(
  曾)(被)(称)(为)(“疯)(牛)(”的)(A股)(市)(场)(自)(6月)(中)(旬)(以)(来)(便)(开)(始)(下)(跌)(,调)(整)(速)(度)(和)(跌)(幅)(超)(出)(所)(有)(人)(的)(预)(料)(,上)(证)(指)(数)(下)(跌)(近)(30%,创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(跌)(幅)(超)(过)(40%,很)(多)(股)(票)(已)(被)(腰)(斩)(,场)(外)(配)(资)(纷)(纷)(出)(现)(爆)(仓)(。
  对)(此)(,管)(理)(层)(也)(迅)(速)(采)(取)(了)(组)(合)(拳)(对)(市)(场)(施)(以)(援)(手)(。这)(轮)(股)(市)(的)(快)(速)(变)(脸)(除)(了)(市)(场)(自)(身)(需)(要)(调)(整)(的)(意)(愿)(之)(外)(,也)(与)(滞)(后)(的)(行)(政)(去)(杠)(杆)(和)(IPO加)(速)(供)(给)(有)(直)(接)(关)(系)(,证)(监)(会)(对)(两)(融)(管)(理)(办)(法)(的)(调)(整)(不)(仅)(是)(为)(了)(稳)(定)(市)(场)(预)(期)(,其)(实)(也)(是)(明)(确)(承)(认)(此)(前)(行)(政)(干)(预)(市)(场)(的)(错)(误)(。
  在)(股)(市)(连)(续)(下)(跌)(的)(时)(候)(,大)(量)(卖)(盘)(使)(得)(强)(制)(平)(仓)(异)(常)(困)(难)(,这)(直)(接)(威)(胁)(到)(券)(商)(、信)(托)(、银)(行)(等)(配)(资)(机)(构)(的)(资)(金)(安)(全)(,这)(也)(是)(管)(理)(层)(和)(各)(政)(府)(部)(门)(联)(手)(稳)(定)(市)(场)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(。
  只)(是)(此)(前)(的)(稳)(定)(策)(略)(是)(否)(对)(路)(仍)(然)(值)(得)(商)(榷)(。货)(币)(政)(策)(在)(股)(市)(有)(财)(富)(效)(应)(的)(时)(候)(才)(能)(传)(导)(进)(股)(市)(,人)(们)(争)(先)(恐)(后)(逃)(离)(股)(市)(的)(时)(候)(自)(然)(不)(会)(再)(去)(贷)(款)(或)(搬)(存)(款)(接)(盘)(;养)(老)(金)(入)(市)(对)(提)(振)(市)(场)(信)(心)(是)(一)(种)(潜)(在)(的)(可)(能)(,但)(养)(老)(金)(是)(养)(命)(钱)(;放)(松)(杠)(杆)(的)(行)(政)(管)(理)(措)(施)(虽)(然)(是)(对)(此)(前)(行)(政)(干)(预)(市)(场)(行)(为)(的)(认)(错)(,但)(目)(前)(很)(多)(人)(的)(信)(心)(和)(预)(期)(发)(生)(了)(改)(变)(,谁)(敢)(轻)(易)(再)(加)(杠)(杆)(买)(入)(?证)(监)(会)(取)(消)(了)(强)(制)(平)(仓)(线)(,但)(券)(商)(不)(会)(取)(消)(,否)(则)(券)(商)(的)(安)(全)(和)(利)(益)(如)(何)(保)(障)(?显)(然)(,这)(些)(稳)(定)(市)(场)(的)(政)(策)(不)(能)(从)(根)(本)(上)(扭)(转)(现)(在)(的)(市)(场)(情)(绪)(。
  况)(且)(,这)(次)(股)(市)(的)(急)(速)(调)(整)(是)(集)(聚)(了)(多)(种)(因)(素)(而)(爆)(发)(,而)(股)(指)(、期)(指)(被)(人)(为)(巨)(量)(做)(空)(是)(市)(场)(加)(速)(调)(整)(的)(助)(推)(力)(。
  理)(论)(上)(,股)(指)(期)(货)(和)(期)(权)(作)(为)(套)(期)(保)(值)(和)(引)(导)(现)(货)(价)(格)(预)(期)(稳)(定)(的)(衍)(生)(工)(具)(,是)(想)(让)(机)(构)(股)(票)(加)(期)(指)(对)(冲)(的)(操)(作)(策)(略)(来)(锁)(定)(风)(险)(和)(应)(对)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(。但)(国)(内)(好)(赌)(的)(机)(构)(往)(往)(在)(股)(市)(上)(涨)(时)(在)(期)(指)(上)(开)(多)(单)(,然)(后)(动)(用)(另)(一)(部)(分)(资)(金)(拉)(指)(标)(股)(,将)(期)(指)(打)(到)(高)(位)(赚)(暴)(利)(,再)(在)(跌)(的)(时)(候)(反)(手)(先)(建)(空)(单)(,狂)(砸)(指)(标)(股)(、ETF,让)(期)(指)(跳)(水)(再)(赚)(暴)(利)(。
  显)(然)(,目)(前)(的)(市)(场)(焦)(点)(已)(经)(不)(在)(场)(外)(配)(资)(的)(被)(动)(平)(仓)(这)(么)(简)(单)(,风)(暴)(眼)(已)(经)(转)(移)(至)(中)(金)(所)(的)(股)(指)(期)(货)(市)(场)(里)(,这)(也)(是)(证)(监)(会)(在)(两)(融)(管)(理)(办)(法)(里)(取)(消)(了)(130%的)(强)(制)(平)(仓)(线)(和)(允)(许)(杠)(杆)(展)(期)(的)(原)(因)(。
  强)(制)(平)(仓)(线)(、涨)(跌)(停)(限)(制)(往)(往)(成)(了)(空)(头)(充)(分)(利)(用)(的)(制)(度)(软)(肋)(。现)(在)(,证)(监)(会)(也)(意)(识)(到)(了)(这)(一)(点)(,证)(监)(会)(发)(言)(人)(在)(上)(周)(四)(已)(明)(确)(表)(示)(,根)(据)(交)(易)(所)(异)(动)(情)(况)(报)(告)(,证)(监)(会)(决)(定)(组)(织)(稽)(查)(力)(量)(开)(展)(专)(项)(跨)(市)(场)(核)(查)(,并)(表)(示)(符)(合)(立)(案)(标)(准)(的)(,“立)(即)(立)(案)(稽)(查)(”,涉)(嫌)(犯)(罪)(的)(,“坚)(决)(移)(送)(公)(安)(机)(关)(查)(办)(”。
  证)(监)(会)(的)(表)(态)(已)(经)(说)(明)(市)(场)(里)(有)(一)(股)(跨)(市)(场)(恶)(意)(做)(空)(的)(力)(量)(,现)(在)(要)(出)(手)(打)(击)(了)(。这)(一)(招)(如)(果)(真)(能)(落)(实)(到)(位)(,对)(市)(场)(的)(“裸)(做)(空)(”力)(量)(自)(然)(是)(一)(个)(震)(慑)(。不)(过)(什)(么)(叫)(恶)(意)(跨)(市)(场)(做)(空)(?哪)(些)(做)(空)(行)(为)(涉)(嫌)(犯)(罪)(?目)(前)(A股)(并)(未)(限)(制)(“裸)(做)(空)(”,现)(货)(、期)(货)(双)(空)(算)(不)(算)(违)(规)(也)(很)(难)(界)(定)(,但)(窗)(口)(指)(导)(是)(一)(定)(会)(有)(的)(,此)(招)(虽)(然)(可)(以)(抑)(制)(空)(头)(的)(循)(环)(做)(空)(冲)(动)(,但)(想)(让)(股)(市)(起)(来)(也)(没)(那)(么)(容)(易)(。
  上)(周)(末)(管)(理)(层)(召)(开)(了)(紧)(急)(会)(议)(,推)(出)(1200亿)(元)(的)(平)(准)(基)(金)(、暂)(缓)(IPO等)(,但)(要)(防)(止)(用)(药)(过)(猛)(,导)(致)(市)(场)(需)(要)(自)(我)(解)(决)(的)(问)(题)(没)(有)(解)(决)(,防)(止)(未)(来)(留)(下)(更)(大)(的)(隐)(患)(。
  当)(务)(之)(急)(,市)(场)(上)(下)(都)(应)(该)(冷)(静)(反)(思)(,尤)(其)(监)(管)(部)(门)(要)(反)(思)(这)(次)(对)(形)(势)(的)(误)(判)(和)(对)(杠)(杆)(风)(险)(的)(认)(识)(不)(足)(,未)(来)(要)(尽)(量)(减)(少)(用)(“逆)(周)(期)(调)(节)(机)(制)(”来)(行)(政)(干)(预)(市)(场)(,别)(把)(控)(制)(风)(险)(变)(成)(制)(造)(风)(暴)(。尽)(快)(完)(善)(和)(修)(补)(市)(场)(的)(制)(度)(漏)(洞)(,比)(如)(适)(当)(限)(制)(股)(指)(期)(货)(市)(场)(的)(“裸)(卖)(空)(”行)(为)(,让)(股)(指)(和)(期)(指)(等)(衍)(生)(品)(回)(归)(套)(期)(保)(值)(和)(避)(险)(的)(功)(能)(,以)(及)(加)(强)(补)(充)(现)(货)(市)(场)(的)(融)(券)(做)(空)(机)(制)(。
  其)(次)(,投)(资)(者)(要)(深)(刻)(反)(思)(,尤)(其)(新)(股)(民)(和)(使)(用)(高)(杠)(杆)(的)(投)(资)(者)(要)(借)(此)(次)(调)(整)(学)(会)(控)(制)(风)(险)(,要)(敬)(畏)(市)(场)(。
  另)(外)(,媒)(体)(应)(该)(整)(体)(反)(思)(,要)(尊)(重)(市)(场)(规)(律)(。市)(场)(的)(魅)(力)(恰)(恰)(在)(于)(分)(歧)(,统)(一)(口)(径)(的)(“舆)(论)(牛)(市)(”只)(会)(制)(造)(灾)(难)(。
  (作)(者)(系)(对)(外)(经)(济)(贸)(易)(大)(学)(公)(共)(政)(策)(研)(究)(所)(首)(席)(研)(究)(员)()
)


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